Tuesday, February 22, 2011

WMA 21 February 2011

The weekly TDST was not broken at the beginning of 2011, and a mild corrective rally was to resume the primary trend. However, the indicators show a lot of weakness in TIP. The daily chart is breaking out and appears that a rally should be in place soon.
Verdict: Trend unclear for now.

Weekly chart retraced and is rallied. The Daily chart had buy signals at the beginning of the year. Recently, the MACD crossed (a bullish sign ). The bullishness is continuing although a bearish divergence is noted on both the weekly and daily charts.
Verdict: bullish with risks of correcting

Copper weekly was has a bearish divergence. Looks like an interim top. The daily chart shows that the bearish divergence correction for copper has already begun.
Verdict: Copper prices is in correction.

The leading indicators are not giving a clear signal, but it appears to be mildly bullish with a lot of downside risk based on bearish divergences.

The USD futures weekly at the beginning of 2011 confirmed that there was no breakout of the TDST, and so the primary trend remains for a weaker USD. In recent weeks, this is panning out and there should be another 3 weeks of USD decline. The daily chart confirms a bearish trend is in place since last week and should continue for at least another week, although a bullish divergence appears to be forming.
Verdict: USD is bearish, support at 76, which is likely to be a temporary hold.

Crude weekly has been in a rising uptrend with healthy indicators. This week, with the weekend’s Libya unrest, crude has broken out of the rising channel with very strong indicators following. How this week would end will determine the outlook for weeks and months to come. The daily chart had (surprisingly) a buy signal last Thursday after bouncing off the rishing channel support.
Verdict: a new uptrend is in place.

Weekly chart shows a retracement in Gold that bounced off the weekly uptrendline. The oscillators are showing support to have one more rally to make a higher high. The daily chart supports the weekly there is a now rally in Gold for at least till the end of this week.
Verdict: Gold is very bullish, correction is postponed.

Weekly ES futures chart indicates a rather overbought condition but is likely to continue for about another 2-3 weeks. The daily chart is way overdone in the bearish divergence and the RSI indicates that it is about time for a correction. With the current unrest in Libya, it does not surprise if the top has just been reached.
Verdict: Possible interim top, time for correction.

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