Sunday, May 8, 2011

End of Commodities Run? - Market Analysis for 9th May 2011 by Singaporeseeds

Daily chart for Dow


Daily chart for S&P


Daily chart for NASDAQ


The indexes came back to test the 20 day moving average before bouncing off on Friday. I believe we will be testing the 50 day moving average this week before bouncing to making another high.
The longer trend is still up and May should close as a bullish month.

Daily chart for the Dollar (UUP)


The dollar made a 2 day bounce on Thursday and Friday. I believe this was the spark which caused a drop in almost all commodity prices over the market. The downtrend is still intact but we should see a bounce up to 22 on UUP. My final downward target for UUP would be 19.70.

Daily chart for Gold (GLD)


Daily chart for Silver (SLV)


Gold is going back to restest support at 140 while silver’s support is at around 32. Such parabolic runs usually end with a bang. Hence I’m expecting a volatile final spike that should break the high at 153 for gold and 48 for silver before it reverses into a long downtrend.

Daily chart for Crude Oil (USO)


Crude oil (USO) closed at a support level on Friday. Monday we shall see whether this support holds for USO. Next support at around 37.50. I believe a bounce should happen with resistance at 42 before crude continues on the downtrend.

Natural Gas (UNG)


Natural gas hit resistance at its 200 moving average at 12 before reversing back down to its 50 day moving average. It is now between 2 important moving averages and the side that it moves out from will determine its movement for the next few months.

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