Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Gunning for a Bullish January Barometer - Market Analysis by Singaporeseeds for January 17th 2011

Daily chart for Dow

Daily chart for S&P

Daily chart for NASDAQ

Market analysis for last week:
“The market went flat after the New Year gap. It seems to be déjà vu as 2012 started almost exactly the same way as 2011.
At the moment, the dollar is dictating the movement of the markets with dollar inversely related to the market. Last Friday saw the end of the uptrend in the dollar rally so we should see some movement this week onwards.
I’m still bullish on the market with targets at 1,350 for the month and 1,553 for the year, but if the S&P drops below its 200 day moving average support at around 1,253, the trend would have changed to bearish and we might close with a bearish January. Should this happen, we are in for a bearish 2012.”

Market analysis for this week:
Having a great time in Bali and totally forgot about my market analysis until a while ago. I had closed all my positions just before I left for Bali even though I thought the market had a little more rally to go. I never could trust the internet connectivity in Indonesia and did not want to risk being disconnected with open positions for a week.
Last Friday, the market hit sequential setup candle 9 and made an intraday dip. I took this as the end of the first leg of rally and expected it to dip a few days before continuing the uptrend. Today, we are making new highs on pre-market futures. Take note that all these against the backdrop of France’s downgrade and the persistent threat of an expanded European crisis. This only shows how bullish the sentiment had been this past 2 months.
I had been long since early December and it seems that we will close with a bullish January. We might still dip later this week to test support at 1,260 before continuing this rally to my target at 1,350 on S&P.

Daily chart for the dollar (UUP)

Market Analysis from last week:
“The uptrend in the dollar has ended last Friday. The dollar has rallied for 2 months without any significant pullback and had stopped just below a range of resistances. We should see a pullback starting from this week.
Target at 22 and then 21.70.”

Market analysis for this week:
The dollar is still trending slightly upwards and holding up very well. We should see it dip from today onwards. There is a huge bearish divergence pattern for the dollar. First target 22.3 then 22.

Daily chart for Gold (GLD)

Market Analysis from last week:
“Gold hit my first target last Thursday and stopped below the 200 MA. As long as the dollar is on an uptrend, it will put bearish pressure on commodity prices. With the dollar expected to dip from this week onwards, I believe we should see gold rally.
There is now a pennant pattern on daily charts. Gold would have to break resistance at its 200 MA and then the pennant resistance at 165 on GLD before a strong uptrend would emerge. I believe this movement will start sometime this week onwards.”

Market analysis for this week:
Gold gapped above resistance last Wednesday and rallied. On weekly charts, gold had been very bullish too. I feel that we are very close to a bottom for gold. Should the huge bearish divergence on the dollar start moving, we will see gold gap and rally.

Daily chart for Crude Oil (USO)

Market analysis from last week:
“Crude gapped up and faded the gap last week. On daily charts, there’s a huge bearish divergence on MACD and RSI.
However I believe crude prices are now very dependent on news coming from Iran and the Straits of Hormuz. If Iran continues to play mind games with US, bearish divergence or not, we will see crude spike to a new high in no time.”

Market analysis for this week:
Market analysis for crude oil still the same. Target at 45.82 on USO.

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