Sunday, January 22, 2012

Hitting New Highs! - Market Analysis for January 23rd 2012 by Singaporeseeds

Daily chart for S&P


Daily chart for Dow


Daily chart for NASDAQ


Market analysis from last week:
“Last Friday, the market hit sequential setup candle 9 and made an intraday dip. I took this as the end of the first leg of rally and expected it to dip a few days before continuing the uptrend. Today, we are making new highs on pre-market futures. Take note that all these against the backdrop of France’s downgrade and the persistent threat of an expanded European crisis. This only shows how bullish the sentiment had been this past 2 months.
I had been long since early December and it seems that we will close with a bullish January. We might still dip later this week to test support at 1,260 before continuing this rally to my target at 1,350 on S&P.”

Market analysis for this week:
The market continued to blast off to new highs the whole week. No bad news coming out from Europe could dampen this rally. This is the most bullish January that I’ve seen since I’ve started trading 4 years ago. The market closed on Friday with a slightly over-bought level on RSI at 1311.25 on S&P futures.
With one more week to go for the January barometer, I do not think anything other than an outright default by a sovereign country can turn this month into a bearish month. There are signals that this rally is getting exhausted, but this will only be a dip in a longer term uptrend.
As for my first target at 1,350, I’m now expecting a dip sometime next week. Let’s see whether the market could reach this level first. I think the dip should come in sometime next week. Support at 1,260 on S&P futures.

Daily chart for the Dollar


Market analysis from last week:
“The dollar is still trending slightly upwards and holding up very well. We should see it dip from today onwards. There is a huge bearish divergence pattern for the dollar. First target 22.3 then 22.”

Market analysis for this week:
The dollar dropped as expected last week. I’m expecting follow through for this week. Target still the same.

Daily chart for Gold


Quote from my last market analysis:
“Gold gapped above resistance last Wednesday and rallied. On weekly charts, gold had been very bullish too. I feel that we are very close to a bottom for gold. Should the huge bearish divergence on the dollar start moving, we will see gold gap and rally.”

Market analysis for this week:
With a falling dollar, gold and all other commodities will be expected to rally. However gold had formed a wedge (yellow lines) and if it breaks upwards and out of the wedge, and i expect it to do so, we may see 2000 gold over the next few months.


Daily chart for Crude Oil


Market analysis from last week:
“Market analysis for crude oil still the same. Target at 45.82 on USO.”

Market analysis for this week:
Crude oil gapped and dropped on Friday. It closed the week just below it’s 50 day moving average. With this drop, the chart patterns seem to show that crude might not be able to rally above resistance at 39.50 as it had failed to rally above 4 times over the past 2.5 months.
Once it drops below it’s 200 day moving average at 37.20, I will take it that the rally had failed. New target would be 36.10 and then 35.10 on USO.

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